Research on Road Dangerous Goods Transport System Risk Evaluation Method: Based on Translation-Corrected Entropy Weight Method

Abstract

In order to evaluate the road dangerous goods transportation system risk (RDGTSR) objectively, we divided the system into four sub-systems including Human (H), Machine (M1), Environment (E) and Management (M2), used the happened road dangerous goods transport accidents number and translation-corrected Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to calculate coupling coordination degree (CCD), established a new RDGTSR evaluation approach. We introduced the information loss tolerance coefficient (ILTC) to control the data information loss in a reasonable range when we applied the translation-corrected EWM to obtain the weight, the strict mathematical proof and case study results show that the smaller of the ILTC, the final weight is closer to the weight without translation-corrected. Also the case study results show that three-factors coupling degree is higher than both two-factors and four-factors coupling degree, higher coupling degree means higher risk to cause dangerous goods transport accidents. Meanwhile, CCD is higher during January to June than the value during July to December, higher CCD means better development of road dangerous goods transport system, higher degree of system harmony and orderliness degree, and easy to cause a road dangerous goods transport accident.